Let not the Numbers Numb...

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The spat between the international media and powers that be in our nation is quite disturbing. Yes, it is about who is right who is wrong, but in their spats, it appears as if these “numbers” about which they are fighting about had no life in them! They are just statistics. I am talking about two reports on  numbers of death in our nation. See links to the reports here.


Just How Big Could India’s True Covid-19 Case and Death Toll Be? - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

And the rebuttal from the authorities  today. https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/no-basis-at-all-centre-trashes-new-york-times-report-on-covid-deaths-2450596?pfrom=home-ndtv_topscroll

Statements like these ” ….asserted that a strong mortality tracking system was in place and "a so-called prestigious newspaper" should not have published such a piece.”, "There may be some late reporting of deaths but there's no intent of any state or the Centre.” are made to convey reality from the data that is out there in the public domain.  

In these spats one forgets that behind each number represented here, there is a person, family, spouse, chidren etc. The pain that people who are represnted by these numbers, becomes something that you brush aside for the macro managment and perception management!  

Numbers have an ability to numb your heart.

Not being a public health specialist, I keep talking to friends who can look at data and make sense. Here is what I heard from one of the friends.

“The number of deaths in U per million is 83. In B it is 36. In D it is 1152. The number of cases per million population is 5250 in B, 6818 in U and 68,357 in D. B also has the lowest case fatality rate, and the lowest test positivity rate. There is something different about these states. I can think of three things - one the data is right, and there is natural immunity and if that is the case, there is no worry in terms of projections, Two - the data is wrong and U an B has been similarly affected as other states. Three - the data is right but the pandemic has not yet really reached there. “


This was about 10 days back. And same time, friends in the forefront of taking care of large numbers pf patients in rural India shared this.

“Yesterday the local authorities called and threatened us - label only RAT positive cases as positive. They said if we report others as positive based on HRCT or C-Xray action will be taken. The authorities do not want us to report deaths as secondary to covid. Only if RAT is positive for that admission in our hospital, we can report it as a covid death. If they were positive during previous admission or in another hospital, we should report it as non-covid death.”

“A few days ago, I was told in a video conference with the authorities to upload data of those patients who were RAT or RTPCR +ve and not others. RTPCR only available 100 kms away. For months we were told not to test at all until they permitted and after they gave permission, they told us to test only severe. If this is happening at a small town like ours, you can imagine the magnitude at which the numbers are not repeorted....” “It’s very sad. People are told and made to believe it’s all typhoid still. Lot of brought dead patients....” 

With 50% sensitivity for RAT and 60-70% RTPCR, and accessibility issues for tests, how many patients  would be go undiagnosed or not reported, one wonders....

I personally have declared death of a patient recently, as non-covid (but definitely covid), because the tests could not be done or accessed in the capital city of our nation. And reports like this speak a different story - https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/entire-families-wiped-out-by-covid-in-rural-india-report-2443913?pfrom=home-ndtv_topscroll

What ever the truth be – let us not be numbed by numbers. Let us remember that behind every number represented was a man or a woman with friends, family, parents, brothers and children with them. And when one number is added to the list of mortality data there will be behind that number a family who has lost their father, mother, children, grand parent of some other close relative.

The good book says "When he looked out over the crowds, his heart broke. So confused and aimless they were, like sheep with no shepherd. " Let my heart be broken amidst the numbers that numb....

  

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